Here is what the maps signal next.
After an unusually gentle run for mid November, a sharper turn is lining up for the region and beyond. Forecast models and official guidance now point to a marked cooldown with a growing chance of wintry conditions on higher ground in the north.
By next Tuesday 18 November, the South West is set to slip from daytime highs near 11C to overnight lows of around 3C. That is the headline, yet forecasters also flag a broader pattern change later in the month that could usher in chillier winds and a drier feel for many. Curiosity is warranted.
The Met Office words that hint at frost and hill snow
The Met Office has set out a cooler story in its latest long-range guidance. In its own words, « Many central and northern parts of the UK will likely be in a colder but drier regime than of late with overnight frosts, and a few showers near windward coasts in particular which may be wintry on high ground. However, it could remain cloudier, milder and wetter initially across some southern and southwestern areas, with some uncertainty as to how quickly this clears away to the south. »
The outlook continues, « It is most likely that the bulk of the UK will experience drier and colder conditions into the first part of next week. Later in the period there is increasing uncertainty, but a trend towards more changeable conditions is possible, with some rain or showers in places, and perhaps some hill snow at times in the north. Temperatures overall may return to near-average. »
That places the South West close to a boundary between lingering cloud and rain in the far south and a cooler, drier feed over central and northern areas. Overnight frost is back on the cards where skies clear, and higher routes in Scotland look the most likely spots to flirt with early season snow showers.
South West temperatures to fall from 11C to 3C as the cold snap bites
The region has felt relatively mild so far, but the swing will be noticeable. Through the early part of next week, highs near 11C give way to colder nights, with lows close to 3C widely. In sheltered spots, the air will feel alot sharper by midweek, especially at dawn and after dark.
This shift will not bring deep freeze conditions everywhere, yet it will cut through recent humidity and change how the weather feels on the street. Pavements will be slick after showers, breathe will cloud in the morning air, and many will finally reach for heavier coats and scarves. Shorter days will accentuate the chill, even where the thermometer hovers a touch above freezing.
The South West may also hold on to cloud at times as the pattern flips, which can limit daytime warmth and keep evenings raw. That said, any brighter interludes will quickly cool after sunset. It is a classic mid November reset for the region.
Weather warnings, heavy rain totals and the wind shift to watch
Forecasters tracking model data see another piece of the puzzle later in the month. Experts at WXCharts, which uses MetDesk data, have signalled chilly winds beginning to flood in from 23 November, with 25 counties said to be in the firing line. A band of low pressure moving northeast is expected to bring plenty of rain to many areas first, notably Wales and the North West of England.
The wet theme is already evident. Nearly 40 areas sit under weather warnings for rain with flooding feared, including parts of south Wales today. More than 30 mm fell in Hull on Monday, while Cranwell in Lincolnshire saw 25.4 mm in just a few hours. Ground is saturated in places, so any further downpours could bring quick surface water issues.
Independent forecasters also flag the wintry side of the risk for northern hills. Jo Farrow of Netweather said, « Something colder with a frost risk in the north and even snow showers for Scottish hills but really it will just pull temperatures to where they should be at this time in November. Southern Britain could hold onto the milder air even into the weekend. » Her point matches the official steer that the cool-down brings values closer to seasonal norms rather than an extreme plunge.
- Key points for the UK this week include a dip to around 3C in the South West by Tuesday, ongoing rain risks in warned areas, and a possible shift to chillier winds from 23 November.
For the South West, that likely means a brief juggle between lingering damp spells and cooler, clearer interludes. When clearer skies arrive, nights will turn colder with a greater chance of grass frost on suburban lawns and rural verges. When cloud and showers stick around, it stays raw and breezy near coasts.
Travel conditions may fluctuate as bands of rain move through and temperatures ebb lower at night. Commuters heading over higher routes early in the morning should allow extra time once the cooler phase settles in. Coastal areas will feel brisk when the wind picks up later in the month, even if thermometers do not show a dramatic drop.
The headline remains simple yet telling. A more seasonal pattern is building, with colder, drier interludes for many and spells of rain before the winds swing. The first nip of winter is on its way, even if the depth of cold varies from county to county.
